Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 3.140171 3.674119 4.266106 4.970390 5.784741 6.696067 7.792594
2025-11-23 2.241119 2.934717 3.787942 4.911492 6.348703 8.121952 10.472127
2025-11-30 1.791179 2.574280 3.623503 5.124359 7.207378 9.986229 13.963152
2025-12-07 1.423737 2.216731 3.359792 5.114082 7.722308 11.437037 17.104273
2025-12-14 1.158207 1.935322 3.129804 5.079243 8.156000 12.792340 20.264368
2025-12-21 0.969462 1.726304 2.958577 5.083043 8.618427 14.217621 23.686567
2025-12-28 0.895137 1.685858 3.040071 5.489412 9.757611 16.814891 29.255627
2026-01-04 0.787009 1.563803 2.959817 5.602246 10.411675 18.692470 33.869141
2026-01-11 0.699188 1.460958 2.893073 5.721196 11.080650 20.660317 38.858071
2026-01-18 0.614329 1.347140 2.785525 5.743172 11.567122 22.352168 43.543970
2026-01-25 0.533824 1.226650 2.644377 5.675153 11.866495 23.726197 47.791946
2026-02-01 0.445024 1.071652 2.408372 5.378757 11.671918 24.136210 50.243872
2026-02-08 0.382954 0.966472 2.263990 5.260452 11.842296 25.315655 54.432383
2026-02-15 0.334648 0.884209 2.156699 5.207404 12.146819 26.811679 59.470452
2026-02-22 0.311731 0.859022 2.173984 5.435792 13.094586 29.752617 67.870290
2026-03-01 0.277076 0.797065 2.094441 5.426075 13.504427 31.593774 74.133940
2026-03-08 0.245692 0.737228 2.009686 5.389612 13.845203 33.320733 80.347396
2026-03-15 0.220434 0.688940 1.945636 5.393773 14.281960 35.312347 87.387945
2026-03-22 0.216676 0.701399 2.041915 5.823811 15.824893 40.037937 101.292792
2026-03-29 0.200061 0.672382 2.021824 5.943207 16.598260 43.028544 111.422090
2026-04-05 0.185342 0.646147 2.005071 6.069056 17.405352 46.192522 122.326499
2026-04-12 0.168672 0.610189 1.954459 6.092306 17.942326 48.747508 132.009571
2026-04-19 0.150979 0.567008 1.875129 6.020348 18.209116 50.647087 140.248387